Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012021 210509 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.4  38.9  32.0  31.5  44.4  53.1  62.3  59.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  12.0  10.0   8.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 116.5 110.5 103.0  94.3  89.6  86.5  86.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0 116.0  69.0  30.0  76.0   7.0  -9.0   1.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  65.0  67.0  60.0  55.0  51.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.3%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%