Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012021 210509 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.0  30.9  31.6  36.3  46.6  59.5  57.0  53.9  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  12.0   8.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 109.4 103.5  96.2  89.3  84.6  81.5  83.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0  70.0  22.0  54.0   0.0   9.0   1.0  -9.0  F  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  58.0  51.0  46.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.7%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons