Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012021 210510 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    108.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  32.9  32.4  35.2  46.2  52.6  50.8  46.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  18.0  12.0  10.0   6.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        111.5 105.5  99.8  96.2  89.3  86.1  86.1  84.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  23.0  55.0  79.0  17.0  12.0 -37.0 -12.0  N  U  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  58.0  51.0  46.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.6%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons