Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012021 210510 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    109.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  32.7  39.0  43.3  53.5  57.1  54.7  54.7  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  10.0   6.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.5  98.0  92.7  87.7  83.0  83.0  81.5  81.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  53.0  78.0  68.0  38.0 -12.0 -27.0 -27.0  U  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  53.0  47.0  44.0  44.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons