Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012021 210510 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    109.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.3  39.3  42.0  49.9  56.1  53.6  47.8  47.8  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.5 101.6  98.0  94.4  89.3  86.1  83.0  83.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  83.0  70.0  11.0  14.0 -32.0 -29.0 -29.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  50.0  44.0  42.0  42.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons