Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022021 210530 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    103.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  22.4  22.5  17.8  23.1  28.2  28.9  30.5  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  48.0  32.0  35.0  56.0  34.0  20.0  15.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 118.6 112.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  73.0 110.0 119.0  97.0  45.0 111.0  77.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -7.0  -6.0  -4.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        4.1%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h       12.9%       32.9%       22.9%
 30kt / 24h        6.2%       14.8%       10.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%       14.8%        8.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       14.8%        8.3%
 45kt / 36h       14.2%       45.5%       29.9%
 55kt / 36h        7.4%       21.5%       14.4%
 55kt / 48h       20.5%       22.7%       21.6%
 70kt / 48h       11.4%       19.6%       15.5%
 65kt / 72h       19.8%       21.6%       20.7%