Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022021 210531 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    104.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  19.8  18.3  21.0  30.6  42.1  35.8  44.3  N  N  F  N  U VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  31.0  36.0  47.0  49.0  20.0  15.0   8.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 118.6 110.5 101.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0 107.0 132.0 155.0  66.0  80.0  46.0  63.0  F  F  F VF  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -7.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0   4.0   2.0   1.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.7%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        8.1%       21.9%       15.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%        8.6%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        8.6%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        8.6%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        8.2%       22.8%       15.5%
 55kt / 36h        3.3%        7.4%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h        8.4%        7.5%        8.0%
 70kt / 48h        5.0%        5.1%        5.1%
 65kt / 72h        7.3%        4.6%        5.9%