Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022021 210531 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00    106.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  19.4  20.0  22.3  31.4  34.4  27.2  33.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  40.0  49.0  56.0  34.0  19.0  15.0  10.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 127.3 116.5 110.5 104.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   101.0 131.0 123.0 109.0  77.0  90.0  72.0  32.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -3.0  -4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.6%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        7.6%       20.9%       14.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        7.7%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        7.7%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        7.7%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        6.7%       20.7%       13.7%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        6.3%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h        8.5%        7.0%        7.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%        5.0%        5.1%
 65kt / 72h       10.4%        7.0%        8.7%