Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022021 210531 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    107.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  18.8  20.5  27.1  36.6  27.7  30.2  28.4  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  54.0  56.0  54.0  25.0  15.0  10.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 127.3 116.5 108.5 101.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   135.0 132.0 132.0  81.0 148.0  59.0  40.0   0.0 VF  F  F  N VF  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  64.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        3.2%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h       13.2%       32.0%       22.6%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%       13.7%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%       13.7%        7.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%       12.6%        6.9%
 45kt / 36h        8.8%       29.7%       19.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.1%       10.4%        6.7%
 55kt / 48h       13.1%       11.7%       12.4%
 70kt / 48h        6.2%        9.1%        7.6%
 65kt / 72h       10.0%        9.6%        9.8%