Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022021 210531 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  21.7  25.3  31.8  35.2  33.9  33.7  29.7  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  57.0  48.0  29.0  14.0  10.0   7.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 124.6 107.4  99.8  94.4  89.3  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0 117.0 119.0  90.0 111.0  35.0  18.0 -18.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  61.0  54.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        6.6%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h       20.1%       38.2%       29.1%
 30kt / 24h        9.0%       19.8%       14.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%       19.8%       11.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%       18.1%       10.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.3%       26.5%       16.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        9.6%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        3.3%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        5.6%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        4.1%        3.2%