Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022021 210601 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    109.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  25.5  30.3  34.0  31.0  33.0  28.0  30.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  43.0  26.0  18.0  11.0   8.0   6.0   4.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 119.3 112.3 105.7  93.5  86.2  81.0  76.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   135.0 112.0 130.0 102.0  42.0   7.0   4.0 -44.0 VF  F  F  F  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  57.0  51.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.8%       10.8%       12.3%
 25kt / 24h       26.9%       35.1%       31.0%
 30kt / 24h       16.2%       19.5%       17.8%
 35kt / 24h        8.7%       19.5%       14.1%
 40kt / 24h        8.7%       19.5%       14.1%
 45kt / 36h        9.8%       25.1%       17.4%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%        9.8%        7.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        3.5%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        4.5%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%