Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022021 210601 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  30.6  32.9  32.7  32.6  33.3  30.4  35.3  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  26.0  18.0  13.0   9.0   7.0   6.0   3.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 107.3 100.7  94.4  84.8  79.4  76.0  69.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0 146.0 129.0  84.0  44.0 -13.0 -36.0   3.0  F VF  F  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  60.0  53.0  50.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.0%       10.1%       12.5%
 25kt / 24h       25.0%       30.7%       27.9%
 30kt / 24h       14.5%       16.9%       15.7%
 35kt / 24h       10.2%       16.9%       13.6%
 40kt / 24h       10.2%       15.7%       13.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.7%       18.1%       11.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        6.6%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        1.0%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        2.5%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%