Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022021 210601 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    109.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  32.3  31.7  32.0  34.2  27.3  33.1  35.5  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  19.0  12.0  10.0   7.0   5.0   5.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.6 102.9  98.6  92.4  84.8  79.4  74.3  69.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   123.0 134.0 103.0  68.0  10.0 -10.0  -6.0  25.0  F VF  F  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  50.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        2.0%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%        9.2%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        3.6%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        3.6%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        3.0%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        4.5%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%