Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022021 210601 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    110.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  30.0  31.4  32.7  33.2  31.9  38.2  34.8  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  14.0  11.0   9.0   7.0   5.0   4.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 103.6  97.4  93.5  88.0  84.4  77.7  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   131.0 107.0  68.0  65.0  -5.0 -23.0   2.0   7.0  F  F  N  N  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  62.0  61.0  57.0  53.0  48.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.7%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%