Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022021 210602 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  33.5  35.7  34.1  29.1  35.2  38.7  35.2  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0   9.0   8.0   6.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.5  97.4  93.5  89.8  86.2  81.0  76.1  71.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   110.0  56.0  61.0  27.0  14.0   7.0   6.0  13.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  50.0  50.0  47.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons