Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022021 210602 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  35.2  35.4  32.5  32.1  35.8  34.9  32.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  10.0   9.0   7.0   5.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.4 100.5  98.5  94.8  91.2  86.0  81.1  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  42.0  18.0   0.0 -41.0 -36.0 -26.0 -16.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  53.0  51.0  47.0  47.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons