Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022021 210602 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    112.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.0  39.4  34.5  30.8  34.7  41.9  39.1  33.8  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.5  94.8  93.0  91.2  86.0  81.1  78.0  73.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  23.0   4.0  26.0 -22.0 -25.0 -46.0 -33.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  51.0  48.0  47.0  46.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons