Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022021 210602 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    112.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.1  37.7  34.8  35.0  37.2  38.6  39.4  30.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8 103.0 101.2  97.7  92.7  89.6  83.6  79.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  18.0   0.0 -25.0 -52.0 -33.0 -42.0 -25.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  56.0  54.0  48.0  47.0  46.0  47.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons