Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022021 210603 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    113.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.7  35.9  38.6  39.4  39.3  41.4  35.3  30.5  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   5.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.0 101.2  99.4  97.7  92.7  88.0  82.2  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  40.0 -17.0 -21.0 -30.0 -24.0 -30.0 -21.0  U  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  49.0  48.0  47.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons