Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022021 210603 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    113.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.9  40.8  43.0  40.4  37.1  37.1  28.3  25.9  U VU VU  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.2  99.4  96.0  92.7  89.6  83.6  78.0  74.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0 -24.0 -25.0 -37.0 -45.0 -34.0 -45.0  -8.0  N VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  53.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  44.0  45.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0   1.0  -2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons