Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022021 210603 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.1  43.7  43.1  40.2  35.1  31.6  28.0  32.7 VU VU VU  U  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.0  94.3  91.1  88.0  83.6  78.0  72.9  68.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -25.0 -43.0 -59.0 -49.0 -27.0 -42.0 -24.0 -37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  49.0  46.0  47.0  44.0  46.0  44.0  41.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons