Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022021 210603 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    114.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.6  42.6  40.9  38.4  32.8  23.3  28.5  37.7 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.3  92.7  89.6  86.5  80.8  75.4  70.5  65.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -57.0 -65.0 -34.0 -69.0 -32.0 -43.0  -6.0 -43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  47.0  45.0  44.0  44.0  42.0  38.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons