Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032021 210612 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80    123.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  16.9  20.3  23.2  22.4  18.8  19.6  21.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  10.0  10.0   9.0  11.0  12.0  11.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.5 112.4 114.4 114.4 116.5 118.6 118.6 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0 119.0  94.0  41.0  -7.0 -46.0 -36.0 -16.0  N  F  F  N  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  52.0  45.0  40.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        6.4%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.7%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.7%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%       11.1%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        3.8%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.6%        3.6%        3.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        3.9%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%        5.9%        4.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons