Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032021 210613 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    124.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  22.6  26.1  27.4  21.9  21.1  23.8  23.2  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   9.0  10.0  11.0  12.0  12.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.4 107.4 109.4 109.4 109.4 109.4 109.4 107.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   111.0  71.0  57.0  38.0 -14.0 -39.0 -28.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  50.0  46.0  42.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.4%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        7.0%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.2%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.2%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.8%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%       10.3%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        3.6%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        1.4%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        2.9%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        3.6%        2.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons