Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032021 210613 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    125.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  26.3  27.4  26.4  19.9  25.5  26.1  23.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0  10.0  11.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.4 102.4 104.4 104.4 104.4 104.4 104.4 102.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  56.0  55.0  -2.0 -40.0 -53.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  44.0  44.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -3.0  -1.0   1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        1.9%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        8.0%        5.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        2.8%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        2.8%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        2.4%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%       11.8%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        4.6%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        1.0%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        2.6%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons