Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032021 210613 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  25.1  24.4  21.0  22.1  24.9  27.5  25.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  12.0  13.0  13.0  14.0  13.0  12.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.4  97.4  97.4  97.4  99.4  99.4  97.4  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  83.0  38.0  -1.0 -50.0  -1.0  10.0 -23.0  F  N  N  U VU  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  50.0  49.0  47.0  42.0  47.0  53.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        1.7%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%        7.4%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        2.6%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        2.6%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        2.5%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        9.1%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        3.3%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        1.4%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        2.0%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons