Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032021 210614 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    126.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  21.0  21.6  27.8  31.7  30.5  31.2  29.1  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  12.0  11.0   9.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.5 100.5  98.5  98.5  96.6  96.6  94.8  93.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0 -26.0 -51.0 -65.0 -17.0  30.0  -6.0 -12.0  U VU VU VU  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  49.0  48.0  45.0  47.0  49.0  48.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons