Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032021 210614 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    127.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  22.1  27.8  31.4  34.4  34.8  33.1  35.3  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  10.0   8.0   6.0   4.0   6.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.5 103.5 101.6 101.6  99.8  98.0  98.0  98.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -50.0 -62.0 -69.0  13.0   6.0   6.0 -15.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  48.0  48.0  44.0  45.0  45.0  42.0  40.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons