Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032021 210614 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    128.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     36.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  30.0  32.5  31.8  34.7  34.7  34.6  38.2  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   9.0   8.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.4 107.4 107.4 107.4 105.5 103.5 103.5 101.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -46.0 -70.0 -52.0 -38.0  39.0  12.0   2.0 -19.0 VU VU VU VU  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  46.0  44.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  44.0  42.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons