Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032021 210615 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     30.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.2  35.7  36.5  36.5  34.1  32.2  36.4  39.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   7.0  10.0  17.0  20.0  21.0  22.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.5 110.5 110.5 110.5 110.5 112.4 112.4 110.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -78.0 -46.0 -21.0  31.0   8.0   5.0 -18.0 -50.0 VU VU VU  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  44.0  44.0  45.0  46.0  43.0  41.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons