Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032021 210616 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.70    133.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     32.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.7  34.5  36.8  36.5  39.1  38.5  33.6  33.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  18.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 114.4 114.4 116.5 114.4 110.5 106.6 106.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  11.0   4.0   0.0 -26.0 -28.0 -82.0 -82.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  46.0  45.0  46.0  44.0  45.0  44.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons