Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032021 210616 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.30    134.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     30.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.9  37.1  36.9  37.2  37.4  32.0  27.8  27.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  21.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  14.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.4 116.5 116.5 116.5 114.4 110.5 108.5 108.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  21.0  21.0 -11.0  -7.0 -48.0 -79.0 -79.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  48.0  47.0  43.0  46.0  47.0  47.0  U VU  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%