Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032021 210616 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.70    135.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     45.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  33.9  34.3  33.0  30.8  27.2  24.8  24.8  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  19.0  19.0  20.0  20.0  14.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        121.5 123.6 123.6 123.6 119.4 117.4 115.5 115.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  22.0  -2.0 -31.0 -21.0 -42.0 -46.0 -46.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  47.0  45.0  46.0  48.0  49.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%