Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042021 210618 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    101.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  29.4  30.0  27.9  37.1  31.5  26.3  20.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  27.0  26.0  26.0  22.0  10.0   8.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0 114.0 144.0 122.0 105.0  73.0 -24.0   0.0  N  F VF  F  F  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  72.0  67.0  60.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0  -7.0  -2.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.4%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        9.6%       23.8%       16.7%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        9.4%        6.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        9.4%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        8.3%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%       26.2%       15.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        8.9%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%       10.1%        7.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        7.7%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h        4.4%       13.9%        9.2%