Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042021 210618 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    102.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  31.9  27.7  33.6  34.0  30.1  29.3  42.5  N  U  N  U  U  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  24.0  23.0  22.0  15.0  14.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0 120.0 133.0 115.0 143.0 -22.0 -25.0 -15.0  F  F VF  F VF VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  75.0  73.0  69.0  61.0  55.0  54.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -7.0  -7.0  -7.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   2.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.8%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h       11.4%       25.5%       18.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%       11.8%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%       11.8%        7.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        9.2%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%       23.8%       14.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        7.9%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%        9.7%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        6.5%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        6.4%        3.5%