Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042021 210618 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    102.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  27.5  32.5  37.2  27.2  26.0  31.9  31.9  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  25.0  22.0  18.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   130.0 130.0 123.0 107.0  81.0   3.0   6.0   6.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  77.0  74.0  72.0  66.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0  -6.0  -6.0   0.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.4%        4.2%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h       14.3%       24.7%       19.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.8%       10.8%        8.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%       10.8%        7.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%       10.6%        6.2%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%       21.9%       14.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        7.1%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        9.1%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        5.8%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        6.1%        3.4%