Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042021 210619 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    102.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  33.3  39.5  35.6  23.5  22.6  22.6  22.6  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  23.0  16.0   9.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0  96.0  81.0 119.0   3.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0  F  F  N  F  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  62.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -5.0  -1.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.9%        4.5%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h       12.2%       20.5%       16.3%
 30kt / 24h        6.3%        9.1%        7.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        9.1%        6.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        9.1%        5.6%
 45kt / 36h        5.7%       17.6%       11.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        5.7%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        7.9%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        4.1%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        5.8%        3.1%