Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042021 210619 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    102.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  35.9  36.6  27.3  24.1  24.1  24.1  24.1  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  13.0   6.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0  90.0 111.0  79.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0  F  F  F  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  72.0  70.0  65.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.8%        5.0%        6.4%
 25kt / 24h       15.3%       25.0%       20.2%
 30kt / 24h        8.6%       13.5%       11.0%
 35kt / 24h        5.2%       13.5%        9.3%
 40kt / 24h        4.6%       13.0%        8.8%
 45kt / 36h        6.2%       18.4%       12.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        6.3%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        8.2%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        3.7%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        4.4%        2.2%