Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042021 210619 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    104.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  25.6  24.2  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  30.0  15.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  F  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  64.0  61.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   6.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.5%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%       12.2%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        6.3%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        6.3%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        5.1%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        7.7%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        4.8%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%