Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210625 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    101.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  16.0  21.2  22.9  23.5  21.6  24.4  23.6  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  19.0  18.0  17.0  19.0  19.0  16.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0  74.0 148.0 158.0 132.0 125.0 151.0 128.0  F  N VF VF  F  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  82.0  81.0  83.0  80.0  83.0  80.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  -1.0 -10.0 -10.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.0%        7.7%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h       26.5%       48.9%       37.7%
 30kt / 24h       13.0%       31.2%       22.1%
 35kt / 24h        7.4%       31.2%       19.3%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%       30.6%       17.5%
 45kt / 36h       19.6%       58.1%       38.8%
 55kt / 36h        8.4%       35.3%       21.9%
 55kt / 48h       24.7%       38.8%       31.8%
 70kt / 48h        8.4%       35.3%       21.8%
 65kt / 72h       17.8%       43.8%       30.8%