Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210625 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    102.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  21.0  21.7  19.4  14.3  24.1  25.4  21.1  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  22.0  21.0  20.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0 138.0 166.0  82.0 130.0 109.0 141.0  99.0  F VF VF  N  F  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  80.0  79.0  77.0  78.0  74.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0 -12.0  -4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.2%       11.0%        9.6%
 25kt / 24h       34.1%       55.9%       45.0%
 30kt / 24h       18.2%       41.2%       29.7%
 35kt / 24h       10.9%       41.2%       26.0%
 40kt / 24h        8.1%       41.2%       24.7%
 45kt / 36h       28.6%       63.6%       46.1%
 55kt / 36h       14.1%       42.1%       28.1%
 55kt / 48h       27.5%       43.1%       35.3%
 70kt / 48h       10.6%       36.9%       23.8%
 65kt / 72h       18.4%       39.8%       29.1%