Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210625 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    103.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  21.8  18.9  19.6  20.0  26.5  27.9  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  21.0  20.0  18.0  16.0  16.0  10.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6  99.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   164.0 170.0 114.0  79.0  90.0 152.0 142.0  55.0 VF VF  F  N  F VF VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  80.0  79.0  81.0  75.0  74.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -8.0 -12.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.2%        7.5%        7.9%
 25kt / 24h       29.1%       45.6%       37.4%
 30kt / 24h       17.4%       33.8%       25.6%
 35kt / 24h       10.0%       33.8%       21.9%
 40kt / 24h       10.0%       33.8%       21.9%
 45kt / 36h       24.3%       45.9%       35.1%
 55kt / 36h       10.7%       23.7%       17.2%
 55kt / 48h       19.7%       29.6%       24.6%
 70kt / 48h        7.7%       20.7%       14.2%
 65kt / 72h       12.3%       22.9%       17.6%