Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210626 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    103.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  17.8  19.1  17.7  27.1  23.6  19.1  16.7  N  F  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  19.0  17.0  16.0  16.0  15.0  10.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 102.3  79.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   147.0 136.0 157.0 174.0 103.0 106.0  93.0  40.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  81.0  79.0  80.0  81.0  76.0  77.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0 -11.0  -6.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       29.6%       25.3%       27.5%
 25kt / 24h       66.6%       77.4%       72.0%
 30kt / 24h       50.0%       74.6%       62.3%
 35kt / 24h       48.1%       74.6%       61.4%
 40kt / 24h       48.1%       74.6%       61.4%
 45kt / 36h       41.3%       68.3%       54.8%
 55kt / 36h       20.8%       48.5%       34.7%
 55kt / 48h       24.2%       43.9%       34.0%
 70kt / 48h        7.3%       33.1%       20.2%
 65kt / 72h        7.8%       27.4%       17.6%