Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210626 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    104.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  20.5  18.9  21.8  27.0  18.9  15.7  15.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  17.0  16.0  16.0  15.0  11.0  10.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3  86.5  69.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   135.0 144.0 190.0 108.0 121.0 140.0  36.0  41.0 VF VF VF  F  F VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  79.0  80.0  77.0  77.0  73.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -9.0 -12.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       40.0%       31.3%       35.6%
 25kt / 24h       69.2%       78.2%       73.7%
 30kt / 24h       55.7%       77.4%       66.5%
 35kt / 24h       48.3%       77.4%       62.8%
 40kt / 24h       48.3%       77.4%       62.8%
 45kt / 36h       41.0%       63.6%       52.3%
 55kt / 36h       19.7%       42.8%       31.2%
 55kt / 48h       24.2%       45.6%       34.9%
 70kt / 48h        7.2%       31.5%       19.4%
 65kt / 72h        5.9%       22.2%       14.0%