Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210626 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    105.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  19.2  23.5  29.3  22.4  15.1  16.4  14.4  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  14.0  14.0  15.0  11.0  12.0   4.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  87.9  73.5  57.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   131.0 180.0  97.0 100.0  86.0  65.0  43.0  14.0  F VF  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  79.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  70.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0 -13.0 -12.0  -6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  F  F VF  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       37.0%       28.5%       32.8%
 25kt / 24h       57.9%       68.1%       63.0%
 30kt / 24h       41.1%       67.2%       54.2%
 35kt / 24h       36.6%       67.2%       51.9%
 40kt / 24h       33.2%       65.5%       49.3%
 45kt / 36h       34.0%       46.3%       40.1%
 55kt / 36h       12.5%       25.1%       18.8%
 55kt / 48h       18.5%       32.9%       25.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.8%       16.8%        9.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%       11.8%        7.0%