Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210626 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    105.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  22.3  27.7  27.0  17.7  15.5  15.7  19.1  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  14.0  14.0  13.0  11.0  13.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  89.3  73.6  63.5  44.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   168.0 123.0  99.0 122.0 109.0  78.0  55.0  21.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  71.0  72.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0 -14.0 -11.0  -7.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  N VF  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.1%       34.5%       49.8%
 25kt / 24h       63.8%       70.7%       67.2%
 30kt / 24h       58.9%       70.7%       64.8%
 35kt / 24h       58.9%       70.7%       64.8%
 40kt / 24h       53.5%       70.7%       62.1%
 45kt / 36h       44.1%       41.6%       42.9%
 55kt / 36h       20.5%       21.8%       21.2%
 55kt / 48h       18.1%       29.5%       23.8%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%       12.8%        8.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        6.3%        3.7%