Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210627 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    105.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  25.1  27.0  23.8  16.9  15.8  15.4  18.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  15.0  14.0  11.0  11.0  11.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  84.6  69.4  56.2  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   136.0  91.0  95.0  82.0  28.0  66.0  32.0  24.0 VF  F  F  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  70.0  70.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -11.0 -11.0  -5.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.4%       13.1%       18.2%
 25kt / 24h       34.9%       39.8%       37.3%
 30kt / 24h       27.0%       39.8%       33.4%
 35kt / 24h       22.4%       39.8%       31.1%
 40kt / 24h       22.4%       39.8%       31.1%
 45kt / 36h       23.9%       14.6%       19.2%
 55kt / 36h        7.2%        5.0%        6.1%
 55kt / 48h        7.6%       12.3%       10.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        3.1%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%