Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210627 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    105.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  24.3  17.3  18.4  14.0  13.3  12.5  13.6  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  14.0  12.0  11.0  13.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  77.3  62.4  49.4  35.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0  61.0 104.0  94.0  73.0  78.0  27.0  30.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  79.0  79.0  72.0  72.0  67.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -7.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.4%       10.3%       14.3%
 25kt / 24h       31.8%       38.3%       35.1%
 30kt / 24h       24.9%       36.7%       30.8%
 35kt / 24h       24.9%       36.7%       30.8%
 40kt / 24h       24.9%       36.7%       30.8%
 45kt / 36h       31.7%       18.5%       25.1%
 55kt / 36h        8.5%        7.3%        7.9%
 55kt / 48h        9.8%       12.7%       11.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%