Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210627 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    105.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.2  21.0  19.5  14.9  13.6  13.8  16.2  17.8  U  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  11.0  10.0  10.0  13.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  72.9  64.4  53.0  33.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0 104.0  83.0  59.0  71.0  49.0  25.0   6.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  79.0  78.0  77.0  73.0  73.0  67.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0 VF  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.8%        6.7%       10.8%
 25kt / 24h       24.1%       29.8%       26.9%
 30kt / 24h       18.6%       26.9%       22.7%
 35kt / 24h       16.6%       26.9%       21.7%
 40kt / 24h       16.6%       26.9%       21.7%
 45kt / 36h       24.2%       13.0%       18.6%
 55kt / 36h        5.9%        4.7%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        8.7%        7.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%