Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210627 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    105.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  20.0  14.9  14.4  14.9  17.3  18.3  19.6  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  10.0   9.0  10.0   8.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  79.6  70.7  60.5  39.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  89.0  69.0  57.0  89.0  19.0  27.0 -24.0  N  F  N  N  F  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  79.0  75.0  76.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -6.0  -7.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.8%        5.1%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h       16.5%       23.5%       20.0%
 30kt / 24h       13.8%       21.9%       17.8%
 35kt / 24h       10.5%       21.9%       16.2%
 40kt / 24h       10.5%       21.9%       16.2%
 45kt / 36h       20.6%        8.9%       14.7%
 55kt / 36h        4.7%        2.9%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.8%        7.5%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%